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    Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion May 20-June 3

    1617 PM EDT Fri. May 17, 2024

    May 20-24: A nearly zonal flow is forecast with a trough is forecast in the West with a ridge in the East.

    A weather system will exit the East over the weekend but is expected to linger over the Atlantic for a few days. Low pressure will develop in the Plains by Tuesday and lift northeast reaching the Great Lakes by Wednesday. The system will cause rain and thunderstorms in the Plains. Some of the rain could be heavy. As the low lifts into Canada, it will \send a cold front stretching through the Ohio Valley to the southeastern Plains east. Pacific energy will move into the Rockies causing rain and higher elevation snow early next week. The system tracks across the northern states with rain and snow. The rain could be locally heavy. Further south rain and storms will be possible by next weekend.

    May 25-29: Little change is expected in the flow with a trough in the West and a ridge in the East. The ECMWF ensembles depict a zonal flow across the nation.

    TEMPERATURES

    Below-normal temperatures are forecast from the West Coast into Northwest Montana. Anomalies of 4-6°F are expected. Above normal temperatures are forecast from New Mexico, the southern Plains, and the Middle and lower Mississippi Valley to the Atlantic Coast north into the Northeast. Anomalies could be near 10°F in some locations.

    Untitled 1

    Yellow-2-4°F

    Orange-4-6°F

    Red-6-8°F or Greater

    Light Blue 2-4F Below

    Mediam Blue 4-6F Below

    Dark Blue-6-8F or Great Below

    PRECIPITATION

    Untitled 2

    Yellow=-35% Below

    Brown-35-45% Below

    Dark Brown-45-55% Below

    Light Green-30-35% Above

    Green-35-45% Above

    Dark Green-45-55%Above

    Below normal precipitation is forecast for most of the Northwest, California, a portion of the Southwest eastward across the Gulf Coast States, and the Southeast. The probability of occurrence is near 35 percent. Above-normal precipitation is forecast for Montana and Wyoming eastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. The probability of occurrence is near 35 percent.

    May 30-June 3: Most of the guidance indicates a weak trough in the West with a zonal flow across the nation. The GFS builds a ridge in the West and brings a trough into the Northeast.

    TEMPERATURES

     Untitled 1

    Yeloow-2-4°F

    Orange-4-6°F

    Red-6-8°F or Greater

    Light Blue 2-4F Below

    Medium Blue-4-6F Below

    Dark Blue-6-8F or Great Below

    Below-normal temperatures are forecast across the northern Rockies into the upper Mississippi Valley. Anomalies could be near 4°F. Above normal temperatures are forecast for the southern Rockies eastward into the Southeast. Anomalies could exceed 8°F.

    PRECIPITATION

     Untitled 2

    Yellow=-35% Below

    Brown-35-45% Below

    Dark Brown-45-55% Below

    Light Green-30-35% Above

    Green-35-45% Above

    Dark Green-45-55%Above

    Below normal precipitation is forecast for the West Coast, the southern Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, into the Mid-Atlantic. The probability of occurrence is near 35 percent. Above-normal precipitation is forecast for the northern Plains into a portion of the Great Lakes. The probability of occurrence is near 35 percent.

    Jim Munley, Jr.
    http://www.jimmunleywx.com


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