ENSO DATA

SYNOPSIS: Neutral ENSO conditions continued in November, with near-average sea surface temperatures observed across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Similar to the last couple of months, the latest weekly Nino indices ranged from +0.1째C (Nino-1+2) to -0.4째C. Below-average subsurface ocean temperatures persisted across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over the western and central equatorial Pacific, low-level wind anomalies were easterly and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly. Convection was suppressed over the Date Line and was enhanced over western Indonesia. The equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected neutral conditions.

The IRI plume continue to predict a weak and a short duration cold episode as indicated by the Nino-3.4 index values less than -0.5째C. This prediction is also reflected in the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble, which continues to predict slightly cooler sea surface and weak cold episode conditions.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD had been tending negative from mid-October but returned to neutral values at the start of December. The Bureau's model forecasts that the IOD will remain neutral throughout the forecast period to April 2025. This is consistent with 5 of the 6 other international climate models surveyed and typical IOD behavior at this time of year.

Currently the MJO is currently in in phase six. The forecasts are for the MJO to slowly make its way into phase 7 and then weaken where no phase is favored. Phase 6 favors ridging in across the US and troughing in the Sea of Okhotsk. Phase 7 favors ridging the Eastern states and troughing in the Western states.

🌊 Sea Surface Temperature Dashboard

Global Weekly Animation