ENSO ADVISORY NO.2 1045 AM EDT Thu. May. 14, 2026
SYNOPSIS
ENSO is currently in a neutral state, with a transition toward El Niño increasingly likely as we move into summer 2026. This is based on the latest NOAA CPC and NOAA PSL updates through April–May 2026. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are near average, while the latest weekly Niño 3.4 value is ~0.4°C. Subsurface heat content has increased for several months, supporting warming. Westerly wind anomalies present; convection near average.
EFFECT
El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricanes, shifts U.S. jet streams, boosts West Coast storms, and alters global rainfall patterns. But if the Atlantic stays record warm, it can partially offset El Niño’s suppression. Drought risks increase across Indonesia and the Philippines. Heavy rain could be possible in Peru and Ecuador, and drier conditions in Brazil.
FORECAST
Models range from a weak to potentially very strong El Niño (≈25% chance Niño 3.4 ≥ +2.0°C). The North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) is signaling a transition from ENSO neutral to El Niño, with the potential for a strong event by late 2026. The latest IRI multi model plume forecast indicates a rapid transition from ENSO neutral to El Niño, with high confidence in warming through summer 2026 and a realistic possibility of a strong event by late 2026. Hotter than normal across the northern U.S., wetter across the Gulf Coast and Southeast, and fewer tropical threats early in the season.
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Jim Munley, Jr.http://www.www.jimmunlwywx.com/