ENSO ADVISORY NO.7 126 PM EDT Tue. Oct. 20, 2026
SYNOPSIS
l Niño is underway and strengthening. NOAA expects it to remain strong to very strong through winter 2026–27; it reported Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures about 2.1°C above average. September’s sea-surface temperatures were much warmer than average across the equatorial Pacific. The warming was strongest in the far eastern Pacific, where the anomaly reached +4.7°C. It was +3.6°C in the eastern Pacific, +2.8°C in the east-central Pacific’s Niño 3.4 region, and +1.0°C farther west. This east-to-west pattern is consistent with a strong El Niño, with especially pronounced warming in the eastern Pacific. NOAA’s October 8 discussion also reported temperatures above +4°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. Its adjusted Niño 3.4 index was +2.1°C; that uses a different anomaly calculation than the September monthly figure, so the numbers aren’t directly interchangeable. Subsurface temperatures remained in excess of +10.0°C at depth in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies stretched from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced convection and rainfall persisted from the central to the eastern Pacific, while anomalies remained suppressed over Indonesia.
EFFECT
Warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the northern U.S. and much of the East. Florida and parts of the Southeast are more likely to have near-normal temperatures. Wetter-than-average conditions across the southern U.S., from the Southwest to the Southeast, and along the East Coast. This includes a wetter signal for much of the eastern U.S. and a shifted storm track that favors stormier weather across the South. More precipitation could help ease drought, though heavy rain can still cause flooding.
FORECAST
El Niño will continue strengthening through the end of 2026 and remain strong to very strong through January–March 2027. Forecasts become less certain later. El Niño may weaken during spring 2027, but NOAA’s current outlook doesn’t establish when it will end or what phase will follow.
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Jim Munley, Jr.http://www.www.jimmunlwywx.com/