p class="MsoPlainText">ABNT20 KNHC 011145
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of
Mexico:
Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low
pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have increased and become better
organized during the overnight hours. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived
tropical depression or storm could form over that time span as the system
meanders over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend
environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional
development as the system drifts southward, likely remaining offshore over the
Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later today, if necessary.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could
occur over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive
Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50
percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane
season, which will run until November 30. The long-term averages for the number
of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3,
respectively.
The list of names for 2023 is as follows:
Name
Pronunciation
Name
Pronunciation
--------------------------------------------------------------------
--
Arlene
ar-LEEN
Lee
lee
Bret
bret
Margot
MAR-go
Cindy
SIN-dee
Nigel
NY-juhl
Don
dahn
Ophelia
o-FEEL-ya
Emily
EH-mih-lee
Philippe
fee-LEEP
Franklin
FRANK-lin
Rina
REE-nuh
Gert
ger
Sean
shawn
Harold
HAIR-uld
Tammy
TAM-ee
Idalia
ee-DAL-ya
Vince
vinss
Jose
ho-Zay
Whitney
WHIT-nee
Katia
KAH-tya
This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly
describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days.
The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT.
After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1
AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to
provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of
the Tropical Weather Outlook.
Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS
headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks.
A standard package of products, consisting of the
tropical cyclone public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion,
and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all ongoing
tropical cyclones. In addition, a
special advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant
unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings.
NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and
warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose
the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas
within 48 hours. For these
land-threatening "potential tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of
advisory and watch/warning products.
Potential tropical cyclones share the naming conventions currently in place for
tropical depressions, being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One", "Two",
"Three", etc.).
The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to
inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches
or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between intermediate
advisories when the storm center is easily followed by radar.
It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a special advisory
package. Tropical Cyclone Updates,
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC,
and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.
All NHC text and graphical products are available on the
web at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8heRBNtP_o0hmBj3L0lB8--IRKUw-l7qVPLuA72adwJMV52x7aBux10b86iHj-DmFZuF53pc4qzjLpL9sipQPafX3O0$
. More information on NHC text and graphical products can be found at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Description.pdf__;!!DZ3fjg!8heRBNtP_o0hmBj3L0lB8--IRKUw-l7qVPLuA72adwJMV52x7aBux10b86iHj-DmFZuF53pc4qzjLpL9sipQE9TEzZA$
. New and updated products for the 2023 season can be found at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_New_Products_Updates_2023.pdf__;!!DZ3fjg!8heRBNtP_o0hmBj3L0lB8--IRKUw-l7qVPLuA72adwJMV52x7aBux10b86iHj-DmFZuF53pc4qzjLpL9sipQn47_TW0$
.
You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC__;!!DZ3fjg!8heRBNtP_o0hmBj3L0lB8--IRKUw-l7qVPLuA72adwJMV52x7aBux10b86iHj-DmFZuF53pc4qzjLpL9sipQZ8Y0rZw$
. Notifications are available via Twitter when select National Hurricane Center
products are issued.
Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed
(@NHC_Atlantic) is available at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php__;!!DZ3fjg!8heRBNtP_o0hmBj3L0lB8--IRKUw-l7qVPLuA72adwJMV52x7aBux10b86iHj-DmFZuF53pc4qzjLpL9sipQP8hHmZY$
.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi/Brown
.