ENSO ADVISORY NO. 1
Thu. Aug. 25, 2022
SYNOPSIS: A cold episode is likely
to continue through the
Northern Hemisphere
Winter while the
NMME models suggest that the cold episode will
transition to neutral in January and spring.
Renewed cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean as well as climate models
indicating La Nina is likely during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled over the past six
weeks, while the sub-surface has also seen recent cooling.
Some atmospheric indicators, such as the
Southern Oscillation Index and cloudiness near the Date Line continue to show a
cold episode signal.
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole event continues. The IOD index has been very
close to or within negative IOD thresholds since early June, with the latest
weekly value one of the strongest observed so far during this event.
All surveyed climate models indicate that
negative IOD conditions are likely to continue into late spring.
The MJO is currently weak. Several models
suggest the MJO is likely to strengthen in the coming days over Africa or the
eastern Indian Ocean and progress eastwards, with the remaining models generally
remaining weak or indiscernible. While over the African and eastern Indian Ocean
regions, the MJO typically increases cloudiness in the eastern Indian Ocean, and
decreases cloudiness for northern parts of the Maritime.
The
most recent IRI plume average for the Nino-3.4 SST index forecasts La Nina to
persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23.
The of NMME models suggest that La Nina
will transition to ENSO-neutral in January-March 2023.
The current cold episode is expected to continue, with chances for La
Nina gradually decreasing from 86% in the coming season to 60% during
December-February 2022-23.
Weekly Animation
Global Weekly Animation
Observed Sea Surface Temperatures
Tropical Anomalies Surface Temperatures
Nino Regions
http://www.www.jimmunlwywx.com/