FEBRUARY 2012 30-DAY OUTLOOK
515 PM EST Tue. Jan. 31, 2012

TEMPERATURES

PRECIPITATION

Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast. 

Oceanic and atmospheric indicators indicate a weak to moderate cold episode across the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperature anomalies of -1.0 C were observed across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean to -2.0 C near the Date Line. Anomalies of -0.5 C were observed eastward to the South American coast. Sub-surface temperature observations show a large area f below normal temperature anomalies in the central and eastern near-equatorial Pacific Ocean. Anomalously cold sub-surface water is an indication that the current La Nina is expected to persist, at least into the spring. Convection remain suppressed near the Date Line near over the central Pacific, enhanced low-level easterly wind anomalies were observed over the western tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over most of the Pacific. La Nina is expected to have an impact on the circulation pattern across North America.

The AO index has been positive for much of the last few months and is forecast to be positive in February by the CFSV2. The NAO index is slightly positive and is forecast to remain slightly positive through day 14. The PNA index is also positive and is forecast to remain positive through day 14. Also, the SO index is fluctuation and currently negative. This may be temporary.

The stratospheric warming over Alaska and northern Canada would seem to indicate a well formation of blocking at 500 MB. So far, however, there has been little indication of a negative NAO in the vicinity of the northeast Canada.

Above normal temperatures are forecast for a large portion of the nation from the Plains eastward to the East coast. The probability of above normal temperatures across this area is 57 percent. The remainder of the nation is not expected to exceed climatological values.

Below normal precipitation is forecast for California, the western and southern Rockies and Texas. The probability of below normal precipitation across this area is 58 percent across Texas and 55 percent elsewhere. The remainder of the nation is not expected to exceed climatological values.

Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.jimmunleywx.com/jimmunleywx

Surface Fcsts 500mb Heights & Anomalies